How many times have you made a calculation based on logic and found that to be at odds with the result you were looking for? We have all made bets on the future based on hearsay and “pundits”, only to find that the result of that wager turned out to be a disaster. You can find ‘experts’ 24/7 who make predictions only to make excuses when looking back at their failed prediction. The stock market is a great example of ‘experts’ creating stories based on facts and then coming up short when results counter acts their convincing prognostication.